Dario Amodei just gave the precise timeline for when robotics becomes a trillion-dollar industry: two to four years after one breakthrough that’s already being solved. The breakthrough isn’t mechanical. It’s cognitive. AI models achieving genuine generalization and continual learning. Amodei: “Will the robotics industry be generating trillions of dollars of revenue? YES.” Absolute certainty. The money is inevitable. Only the timing remains unclear. Every robot operating today suffers from the same fundamental limitation: inability to generalize. Each system requires custom programming for specific tasks in controlled environments. No transfer learning. No real-world adaptation. Just scripted execution of predefined actions. The moment AI solves generalization, that constraint disappears and everything changes. Amodei: “Revolutionize both robot design and control.” Models capable of continuous learning and knowledge transfer across domains transform robots from rigid specialists into adaptive platforms handling completely novel situations without human programming. When that capability arrives, value doesn’t accumulate gradually. It detonates across every physical industry simultaneously. The timeline has clear phases. Technical breakthrough arriving in 12-24 months based on current AI development velocity. Then deployment requiring another one to two years once the capability exists. Amodei: “It will likely take another year or two to diffuse through the economy.” Total window: two to four years until robotics revenue reaches trillions and becomes undeniable economic reality. The transition won’t be incremental. It’s binary. The software either works or it doesn’t. Once functional, manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, construction, agriculture rebuild simultaneously around systems that can finally reason. We’re one model away from ignition. The hardware already exists. Factories are operational. Capital is positioned. The only missing component is intelligence, and development teams are solving it now with visible timelines. When AI cracks generalization, robotics stops being a technology sector and becomes physical infrastructure underlying everything economic. Industries don’t adopt robotics. They become robotic. ...