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Official US inflation for January cooled below market expectations.
US CPI was 2.4% Y/Y, down from the previous 2.7% and lower than the market consensus of 2.5%.
US Core CPI 2.5% Y/Y, down from 2.6% and aligned with market expectations.
Meanwhile, Truflation's custom US CPI was 0.72% Y/Y today, and we've seen inflation dropping below 2% in January and below 1% in February.
Based on our data, we correctly predicted that the US BLS CPI would come in cooler than expected today, between 2.2% and 2.4%. For January CPI reports, we typically provide a range forecast rather than a single number because the BLS adjusts its data weights for the year ahead.
Worth noting that in categories where the BLS still sees elevated inflation: food at 3.1%, utility costs 10.8%, and shelter 3.2%, we already see significant and often persistent cooling, with food and housing categories already entering a slight deflation.




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