Bitcoin Quantile Model How stable is the 1st Quantile floor? I did a deep dive... INSANE RESULTS! 522 weekly fits over the last 10 years to see how much the slope changed. The answer is essentially zero change for 10 years. The same underlying mathematical pattern that defines the Bitcoin Quantile Model lower bounds has been completely stable since 2016.

Check this out @dotkrueger @sminston_with

1st Quantile Today April 5, 2009 = $53,574 Genesis = $58,050 I also compared two starting points: the Genesis block — the one most people use — and Satoshi's birthday, April 5th. There is a meaningful difference in the stability. I also tested out-of-sample results using 10 years of training data to predict the last 5.5 years. April 5th (Satoishi's Birthday) outperformed Genesis by a large margin. By definition, this is not curve fitting, as I did 19 out-of-sample test splits. I will be putting out an article soon with the full results, but it is fascinating.

1st Quantile Today April 5, 2009 = $53,574 Genesis = $58,050 I also compared two starting points: the Genesis block, the one most people use, and Satoshi's birthday, April 5th. There is a meaningful difference in the stability. I also tested out-of-sample results using 10 years of training data to predict the last 5.5 years. April 5th (Satoshi's Birthday) outperformed Genesis by a large margin. By definition, this is not curve fitting, as I did 19 out-of-sample test splits. I will be putting out an article soon with the full results, but it is fascinating.

Then explain it to me like I am a 13-year-old via Grok 🤣

Here is the explain it to me like I am a 13-year-old 🤣