If we use the 200 SMA Weekly to try to understand where the bear bottom might be, we would be around 58k if we respect the conditions of 2018, and around 44k, the level where Bitcoin was on the ETF day, if we follow 2021 where we dropped about 25% below that EMA, just to have a reference point.

What is clear, though, is that the 200 EMA, which is currently around 68/69, has never provided a true bottom, about 10% bounce in 2018 and around 20% in 2022.

I’ve tinkered a bit with moving averages and at the moment the most accurate one is this, which would put it around 50k.

This also well align with this 2W 200EMa around 48K