One of the biggest mistakes that many investors have made betting on mania in crypto is that they never really seem to be able to articulate a different view. When their view does not pan out on the timeframe they gave, they change the timeline and use different reasons for why it will happen. Last year the reason was M2 and how BTC had to follow M2 (even though BTC always tops before M2). This year many use the ISM the same way they used M2 last year. No matter your position, you can always find a narrative to try and support it. It’s important to recognize that this is just narrative chasing. Narrative follows price, not the other way around. You can use the price trends to develop a narrative, but you cannot use a narrative to develop the price trend. Unfortunately, because the mania predictions are typically never challenged, it causes a lot of people to hold useless investments as they are always chasing the next narrative that gives them hope. My recommendation is to stop focusing on narratives and instead focus on actual price trends in the market. Once you do that, you will also likely come to the same conclusions that the news does not matter and that narratives follow price.