I've noticed a lot of people have the view of "If BTC closes below this price, then it's clear it's in a bear market." The problem with that is often times they pick really low prices, so by the time the price gets to that level, the bear market is often already half way over. It's better to recognize bear markets early than waiting until deep into the midterm year. Deferring to the cyclical view of BTC often provides people with earlier signs that the bear market has started, without picking arbitrary prices for confirmation halfway into a bear market.