Prediction Markets know the truth, before the professionals. The reason is fairly simple. It's actually a mathematical concept. It suggests that if you ask enough people to guess the weight of an ox, the average of their guesses will be closer than any single expert's guess. This plays out even more so with financialization of markets. When you have enough people putting money where their mouth is, the likelihood of the end result is more accurate than that of a single individual's expert opinion. It's truly the big reason I think a lot of these prediction markets 'know the truth' before major news outlets.