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There is a hidden rule behind the price increase of bulk commodities.
In each cycle, the order of price increases is basically fixed:
In the first phase, precious metals like gold and silver rise;
In the second phase, industrial metals like copper and aluminum rise;
In the third phase, crude oil and natural gas.
The last to rise are agricultural products, like soybeans and wheat.
One leads to another.
You can look back at the past few cycles, and you can basically verify the logic I’m talking about.
After the internet bubble in 2001, gold bottomed out in April 2001 and started to rise first, copper gained momentum at the end of 2003, crude oil rose from 30 to 147 from 2002 to 2008, and agricultural products only took off in 2007.
After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized in March 2009 and entered a major upward trend, copper took over in early 2009, crude oil rose from 32 to over 100, and agricultural products gained momentum in mid-2010.
After the pandemic in 2020, gold started in June 2019, copper had a V-shaped reversal in March 2020, crude oil rose from negative prices to 120, and agricultural products ignited in early 2021.
Why is there this order?
It's simple, because they perceive the economy at different speeds.
Essentially, financial expectations are the first to rise, industrial expectations are second, actual consumption is third, and terminal inflation comes last.
Finally, let me share with you a little tip about bulk commodities that I have treasured for many years:
Gold rises first, then silver,
Copper prices soar, aluminum takes over,
Tin, cobalt, and lithium are even crazier,...
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