Markets price ~80% odds of a U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31. I’m on the other side. When the political cost gets too high, Congress always finds a last-minute fix: separate DHS, pass a short CR, tweak wording — and move on. “NO” at ~$0.22 = potential 4x if there’s no shutdown. This looks like pure overreaction. Crowds love drama. Politicians hate responsibility. #Shutdown #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Macro #Politics #Trading #Contrarian #RiskReward