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Software is oversold aka no one is vibe coding their payroll, notes:
- Coding agents are a tremendous tool for extending the ambition of a company / product / business unit - why would you use your precious time rewriting SAAS?
- The math doesn’t work - typically no more than 8-12% of enterprise spend is on software so even dramatic cost savings through replacement might result in a 3-5% net impact
- Risk aperture of critical systems is enormous - these software products capture thinking as much as execution - edge cases, runtime behavior and tribal knowledge that cannot not be fully inferred by models
- Not to mention the non software switching cost - how many humans interface with these systems + how much other software is intertwined
- Finally Mag7 / the most sophisticated software companies in the world still spend an enormous amount on 3P software
shoutout to @saumil and @obsidiancap1 who got it right


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