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Over the past 7 days, most of the articles about “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” have been clearly bearish.
In total, 11 articles suggest that Khamenei is likely to remain in power by March 31, while only 2 articles imply that he may no longer be in power by that date.
But simply counting articles is not enough. What really matters is the overall narrative behind each piece of news.
You don’t need to read every article in full, the tool provides an AI-generated summary explaining why the news could impact the market.
The main question is whether all this information has already been priced in.
To assess that, you need to rely on your own judgment, intuition, and experience. This is where individual geopolitical logic can make a real difference.
Or you can use the tool’s AI model, which estimates a probability based solely on the analysis of articles from the last 7 days, without taking the market’s implied probability into account.
For example, for “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?”, the AI estimates an 8% probability based on news coverage, while the market assigns a 23.5% probability.
The tool is free to use:
Feel free to share any feedback, I’d be happy to integrate it.
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