Polymarket gives 39% chance Khamenei is out by EOY 2026. Betting against color revolution is always a good bet by default (and I have), but this time might really be different. Not only has there been a series of regime-delegitimizing geopolitical defeats that culminated in the Israeli Air Force playing Whack-a-Mole with Iranian generals in Tehran, but there is now imminent galloping inflation and a water crisis in the capital. But you still need an elite defections cascade for regime change to become viable. Still, there's a reasonable chance that this year will see the end of this retarded and spiteful gerontocracy.