$SPX Since 1990, we have had 15 red Januarys for an average drawdown of -3.83%. 1990: -6.88% 1992: -2.03% 2000: -5.09% 2002: -1.56% 2003: -2.74% 2005: -2.53% 2008: -6.12% 2009: -8.57% 2010: -3.70% 2014: -3.56% 2015: -3.10% 2016: -5.07% 2020: -.16% 2021: -1.11% 2022: -5.26% Given that the index is now up 8 months in a row (assuming we don't drop below 6,849.09 in 3 days) which also is the longest monthly winning streak since 2017, are we "due" for a red January? Also see my pinned post for a fun hocus pocus pattern. If we do, and we take the average drawdown, we should see the S&P500 around 6666.66 by eom January 2026. I kid you not! -Heis

The go-go 90's was a bit skewed given almost every January was green. So one can say Since 2000 we have 13 red Januarys or about one every other year on average. A coin flip.