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prediction markets will replace the postwar transatlantic security order.
i want to protect North America and Europe. i make 32 prediction markets:
will anyone invade Albania this year?
will anyone invade Belgium this year?
will anyone invade Bulgaria this year?
will anyone invade Canada this year?
and so forth
the defense ministers of Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada etc. see them. they spend 2-5% of GDP buying "Yes" shares in all of them. now everyone is incentivized to defend each other. a few defense ministers outside North America and Europe see a great deal and buy "No" so they are incentivized not to invade anyone. this is what's called a "Nash equilibrium"
now the really cool part: DeFi composability. since everyone is protected, each defense minister can take out a highly leveraged loan against their prediction market shares at up to 95% LTV. this creates a huge peace dividend they can use to support the rules-based liberal order
rest in peace, NATO
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