In 2026… Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle, Polymarket open interest will set an all-time high, more than 100 crypto ETFs will launch, and more… Here are 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026 by the team at @BitwiseInvest 🧵👇

Prediction #1: Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs. Bitcoin has historically moved in four-year cycles, with three significant “up” years followed by a sharp pullback year. Accordingly, 2026 should be a pullback year. We don’t see that happening.

Prediction #2: Bitcoin will be less volatile than Nvidia. Many investors say bitcoin is too volatile. But lately, bitcoin has been less volatile than other assets investors embrace with open arms, like Nvidia. We see that trend continuing into 2026.

Prediction #3: ETFs will purchase more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as institutional demand accelerates. 2026 will be the first year most institutional investors can access crypto ETFs. You can imagine what that will do to demand.

Prediction #4: Crypto equities will outperform tech equities. It’s been happening for the past three years already. As regulations improve and crypto companies continue to innovate, we think they’ll do well in 2026—well enough to keep Wall Street on its heels.

Prediction #5: Polymarket open interest will set a new all-time high, surpassing 2024 election levels. We see a massive surge in activity due to: — New users (opening up to the U.S.) — New investments ($2B capital injection) — New markets (economics, sports, pop culture, etc.)

Prediction #6: Stablecoins will be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency. We expect a country will blame stablecoins for their currency issues. Of course, people wouldn’t turn to stablecoins if local currencies were sound. That won’t stop them from being blamed.

Prediction #7: Onchain vaults—aka ETFs 2.0—will double in AUM. Vaults surged in 2025 before the Oct. volatility spike led to losses across poorly managed strategies. We think a wave of high-quality curators enter the market in 2026 drawing billions into the vaults they manage.

Prediction #8: Ethereum and Solana will set new all-time highs (if the CLARITY Act passes). The outlook for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 is mixed. If it does, we think Ethereum and Solana will be the two primary beneficiaries, seeing their prices soar to all-time highs.

Prediction #9: Half of Ivy League endowments will invest in crypto. Why does this matter? 1. Endowments control ~$1 trillion 2. Ivy League endowments are trend-setters Harvard and other Ivies could bring a lot of pensions, insurance funds, and other institutions to the table.

Prediction #10: More than 100 crypto-linked ETFs will launch in the U.S. For more than a decade, the SEC rejected crypto ETFs. Now, the rush is on. Heading into 2026, we think a clear regulatory roadmap and a market hungry for crypto ETFs will set the stage for “ETF-palooza.”

Bonus Prediction: Bitcoin’s correlation to equities will fall. The reason? We expect crypto-specific factors like regulatory progress and institutional adoption to power crypto higher, even as equities struggle with concerns about valuation and short-term economic growth.

And that wraps our 2026 predictions. To read the full report, go to:

Please note: As with all predictions, these are not guarantees, but represent our best informed estimate. The future is complex and conditional, and whether these pan out exactly as written will depend on many complicated factors. Nothing above is investment advice.