Today's recommended article: Is the reflexivity of prediction markets becoming its weakness? Although the author's article includes AI assistance, the overall idea is still worth a look, such as the several cases mentioned, like if a clandestine prediction market were set up to bet on whether someone would be assassinated? When the amount of this bet reaches a certain level, the prediction itself becomes a bounty for the assassination... In another case, when people bet on the rise and fall of a certain token in the prediction market, if the amount of retail bets in one direction exceeds the total depth of the market manipulation at the exchange, then a certain arbitrage opportunity for manipulation will arise. There have been backtests conducted before, focusing on market depth can effectively increase the prediction success rate. Thus, the reflexivity of the prediction market itself, driven by money and interests, will in turn influence the real world. This backlash will gradually lead the prediction itself to become the driving force, and in the end, just the size of the capital will be enough to change reality... When the prediction market becomes a market for manipulating real events, would you still participate?