Playing in the US stock market and in cryptocurrencies essentially means following the rhythm set by the Americans; The policies of the United States, the narratives from the US, and the flow of American capital determine the short-term pulse and long-term direction of these markets. 1. Basic Framework Looking back 50 years from now, what kind of historical juncture are we at? The beginning of de-globalization: The dollar hegemony established by the Bretton Woods system is gradually weakening. Countries around the world, represented by China, are accelerating their de-dollarization efforts, the original international order is collapsing, the old rules no longer apply, and we can no longer precisely carve a boat to seek a sword; the world is entering a brand new cycle—transitioning from the era of stability to the era of chaos represents an increase in uncertainty. 2. No Disagreements, Only Interests Internally, the Americans are now divided into two waves: One wave has reaped the benefits of dollar hegemony, with the dollar tide harvesting globally. Path dependence has led to a situation where it is difficult to turn the ship around; it’s not that they are stubbornly holding onto the old system, but rather they cannot let go. If they do, what can they do next? Their roots are here, so they can only strive to maintain the global hegemony of the dollar, seeking opportunities in delays and variables in composition; The other wave’s roots are not global but local, represented by Trump, with no ideology, only weighing pros and cons. They choose strategic contraction and a return to local interests, harming the interests of you "globalists"—what does it have to do with us "localists"? As one side diminishes, the other side grows, benefiting from both. 3. The Rhythm of the Federal Reserve and Trump 1. We may have completely bid farewell to the past extreme model of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to the brink and then flooding the market with liquidity. Now, we may have entered a brand new phase: a fine-tuning mode. If inflation rises, tighten a bit; if inflation falls, ease a bit; if employment data is poor, quickly come out to save the market; if employment is stable, then look back at inflation; no more dramatic swings, only steady, gradual adjustments. From the rhythm of US tech stocks, we can catch a glimpse of this; the current AI bull market is rising through the process of continuously squeezing out bubbles. 2. The Federal Reserve's voice will further diminish, while the voice of fiscal policy and industrial policy will increase;...