I remain unconvinced on “prediction markets”. I think the sports betting reg arb is very big, kudos to everyone pulling that off, but I don’t think the set of things that you can bet on is going to grow

Elections are big too but from a betting POV they mostly behave like sports. Clean resolution and you know when they’re happening Most of the long-tail markets that people want are very messy and I think that is what keeps them from taking off

Messy resolution is a problem not only because it increases variance but because it requires trusting the oracle to be impartial I kinda like the idea of asking an LLM to resolve ambiguous markets, doesn’t solve the variance but it might solve the trust issue