The second article in my series on Bitcoin and Quantum risk is out:

In the first article we examined how Bitcoin is secure based on ECDLP. In this article we look at how a quantum computer breaks this assumption, and why this could happen sooner than expected

I lay out 10 reasons why I think quantum timelines are accelerating: 1. Governments are planning for a post-quantum world 2. Qubit counts are scaling rapidly 3. Investment in quantum firms is inflecting 4. Several major quantum milestones have been achieved this year 5. Quantum firms project breaking ECC by 2028-2033 6. The number of qubits needed to break crypto systems is dropping 7. Bitcoin is itself a bug bounty for quantum supremacy 8. Quantum is a race with geopolitical stakes like AGI 9. AI could accelerate the pace of quantum development 10. Credible people have revised their quantum timelines

I also consider scenarios in which the US, China, or some private sector actor develop a CRQC first and explain why I think vulnerable coins are being stolen no matter what - even if the good guys get it first