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📙To read for the anxious Bitcoin investor📈
[in special collaboration with @1basemoney ]
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How much does "timing" matter when buying BTC and HODLing for 10 years? We simulated an investor smash-buying today with $100,000 at 3 different entry points:
• Today's price (~$94,000, Nov. 17th 2025)
• -20% cheaper (luckier)
• +20% more expensive (unluckier)
We then projected Bitcoin 10 years out using the median power law trend, and had the simulated investor in each scenario withdraw -10% of their holdings each year to either stash or spend. Finally, we threw in 3 possible exits:
• Sell at the predicted median price
• Sell at +20% above median price
• Sell at -20% below median price
RESULTS:
Buy 20% cheaper (starts with 1.33 BTC):
• Sell -20%: $642,604
• Sell at median: $803,255
• Sell +20%: $963,906
Buy at today’s price (starts with 1.06 BTC):
• Sell -20%: $514,083
• Sell at median: $642,604
• Sell +20%: $771,125
Buy 20% more expensive (starts with 0.89 BTC):
• Sell -20%: $428,403
• Sell at median: $535,504
• Sell +20%: $642,604
Even if you F*** up BOTH the entry and exit points by 20%, you'd still end up with a 10-year return of 4.3x (even after annual 10% withdrawals)!!

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