The 4-year cycle has provided the #Bitcoin top! It's probably the most common question and debate. Where are we in the cycle? Did Bitcoin just see its peak of this cycle? Ultimately, it could be. Definitely. The rally to $125K happened just days before the government shutdown, and, since then, markets have been going down substantially. However, this cycle has been proven to act differently. The ETF has added $60B in fresh liquidity into the Bitcoin markets, through which a new all-time high was created prior to the halving. In that sense, many historical (time-based) monthly results have been different this cycle compared to the previous cycles. The primary question is then; Does it make sense to provide a high prediction on the outcome of this cycle to be a standard 4-year cycle, when the metrics are changing? I don't think it does. The latter part, in this case, the demand, is constantly evolving, and the parties involved in the markets are constantly changing, which is the beauty of maturing of an underlying asset. On the other hand, the supply is also evolving due to the Bitcoin halvings. The inflationary yearly rate is reducing, which means that ~150K Bitcoin are coming on markets yearly, decreasing over time. A significant portion of this will be sold to pay expenses by miners, but a portion will be held. On the other hand, 60K Bitcoin has been bought in the past 18 months in the Bitcoin ETF, which is a significant constant demand through institutions, which changes the supply/demand framework. Cornering yourself by thinking that the 4-year cycle has ended and has provided a peak based on simply and only, supply/demand based on the halvings + time-related assumptions is short-sighted and wouldn't work. We're on the crossroads of market changes, maturing of an asset like Bitcoin and therefore, different market dynamics. Until now, this correction has been comparable to any other bull market correction for Bitcoin. Until now, the macroeconomic climate has been absolutely terrible for risk-on assets. ...