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Weekend nearly done, still waiting for new lows, then 112k and higher.
Alright, weekend nearly done. Explained last few posts how it's best to wait out the weekend in a range-bottoming process near the tail end of a large move down, before the actual bottom, is mostly without much movement and why it's best to wait out for new lows after it.
Pretty happy with how this weekend went so far: price barely moved, confirming the plan to stay patient and wait for the lows to be taken out before getting involved again.
Also explained in last post how this move down has been longer than expected. The range breakdown, the extended post-FOMC downtrend, and the continued absence of the large buy-side absorption we were monitoring all suggested that the market had shifted into a slightly slower reversal mode.
Aggressive shorting continued to dominate, but still without any real signs of large money stepping in to absorb it. Hence why every attempted bottom has only produced small bounces of a few thousand dollars before rolling over again.
That hasn't changed the fact that I still believe 112k and higher is coming. And yes, I am aware that that is a large move and a bold call from here, but remains the target for all reasons explained prior.
Having, I believe, a large move in front of us is a good thing. And we just have to respect the slower reversal process of getting there.
The sentiment is still very fitting for this type of reversal. Long-term followers know how we handle sentiment: the market does not always counter sentiment immediately, because price goes to liquidity first. Sentiment is there to confirm analysis and refine entries, not to be traded on its own. Right now the market is clearly conditioning shorts further, but still without the big-money absorption required for a true bottom and it is doing so slowly.
So it's on to the second attempt to align ourselves with them to hit target.
You'll see me make the moves to try to profit from it in live time. And we'll see the result through to the end.

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