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Here's what I see happening on 4 year cycles —
Common view: people believe in 4 year cycles, and that 2026 will thus be a down year for BTC.
First order effect: people thus sell in 2025 to avoid the down market year.
Second order effect: the 2025 sellers cause 2025 to be a down year, thus breaking the 4 year cycles.
Third order effect: 2026 is open season. 4 year cycles broken.
(BTC is current at +2.5% YTD 2025)

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