Here's what I see happening on 4 year cycles — Common view: people believe in 4 year cycles, and that 2026 will thus be a down year for BTC. First order effect: people thus sell in 2025 to avoid the down market year. Second order effect: the 2025 sellers cause 2025 to be a down year, thus breaking the 4 year cycles. Third order effect: 2026 is open season. 4 year cycles broken. (BTC is current at +2.5% YTD 2025)