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One thing I've never seen mentioned is that when projects graduate into "ecosystems," this is the first sign of a problem:
The outcome is always the same. The team pivots into supporting value creation happening beneath them. At first, it looks bullish but quickly becomes an albatross. Copycat "ecosystems" emerge. Now the value creators demand higher sums to be retained. The grant program balloons in size. This happened to web3 gaming as a sector. The 2021 metaverse projects & games graduated into ecosystems but entered a death spiral of competing over ludicrously large grants. This will happen to AI as well.
The only long-term bet is whether the team created a product with value and a moat. It's why Treasure eliminated its grants program and also why I'm super bullish on us as an AI participant.
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