Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy. Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact. Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree. LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including: ⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%) 🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%) By 2040, experts predict: 👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily 🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem 🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution. 🧵Read on for more insights and results