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Now, who hasn't shifted as much that might matter on Tuesday?
Confirmed Mail Voters 2%
2023 Voters 7%
Newport News DMA 8% (Jones' home base)
Extremely Motivated to Vote (very Dem) 8%
Confirmed Early Voters 10%
65+ 11%
Nov 1, 20:18
Biggest Spanberger to Miyares shifts in our poll
Moderates 33%
Independents 26%
Mid-Propensity Voters 25%
Nonwhite 23%
Black Voters 22%
Northern Virginia 22%
Low-to-Mid Propensity Voters 19%
Harris Voters 19%
Past Dem Primary Voter 18%
College+ 17%
Women 16%
We're looking at a high single-digit shift among the highest propensity / banked voters. Miyares will need Election Day voters to overcome any double-digit advantage at the top of the ticket.
And don't dismiss the possibility for a huge ticket split among the Election Day voters. This poll is calibrated for a lower turnout than 2021. Question is exactly how big it will be.
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