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As a former buy side equities analyst, the fact that this market was based on GAAP EPS and resolved this way violently tells me that the hedgies are not yet on polymarket in size. Nor do they need to be, until liquidity is way better on PMs. But they will be for a simple reason:
Applying edge (your well-tuned model) to make money on Polymarket for 10x risk/reward is 1000% easier than trying to beat all the other pods at your shop + competing firms on actual stock residual returns, which requires understanding buyside whisper and which KPIs “matter”.
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