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My view: China is quite happy to go back to buying $10-12b a year of US beans (and another 5b of cereals, other ag products).
(China needs hostages in the event that the current truce breaks down)
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Oct 27, 07:44
Having coordinated US-CH talks to see if the PRC was remotely interested in honoring a similar deal struck in Trump’s first term (they were not)…. would encourage a ‘wait and see’ here.
What China isn't willing to do absent a big deal/ US tariff rollback is buy $20-25b of beans a year (what it now buys from Brazil) and go back to giving the US 1/2 its bean market -- 1/4 to 1/3 maybe, not 1/2.
Phase 1 by the way implied ditching Brazil for the US which was unlikely to ever happen ...
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