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$BTC - All TF
LTF (H1/H4):
- H1 trend getting disrespected after full weekend around it, gaps (up to H1 200 EMA x H1 100 MA) getting smaller = Focus shift to H4
- H4 downtrend is the same one since 121/122, after offering the entire move up to ATH (broke near highs, got disrespected, flipped resistance... same one ever since)
- Break/flip H4 downtrend = Local bottom in into bounces to H4 100 MA x H4 200 EMA @ 114/116 (for now, longer it takes, lower they'll get ofc)
HTF (D1/W1):
D1
- Must reclaim D1 200 EMA x August Lows @ 108k+
- D1 300 MA x Low 100k "last bulls stand", D1 300 MA has been respected since 21k
=> Can deviate sub D1 300 MA (like we did in April) x 100k... But if retested bulls don't want to see price stalling below and flipping it resistance
=> Tap into the area, give good reaction back above both = good, otherwise o7
W1
- W1 likely the most important HTF chart for me, currently seeing a W1 trend x W1 S/R flip retest... Could see us chop around W1 trend like we did in June-Oct last year... But ultimately if W1 trend is lost and flipped resistance that has always been my main HTF indicator to gtfo or not so... Key retest and key weeklys ahead of us
Oct 18, 00:16
Can finally catch up a bit on btc/still no PC so no chart but here’s some text
- Same H1 downtrend since 114/115, being retested from below here/right now
=> As I often spam it, during volatile windows, LTF trends (and particularly H1) is goated focus
- D1 300 MA @ 102.5-103.0k front ran (wicked into it last friday, was the main trigger to [try] buy the dip the)
- D1 200 EMA @ 108.0k… potentially lost if we were to close that way
=> D1 200 EMA slightly less relevant to me when that flat compared to D1 300 MA
=> A strong daily close at this point would be a daily close > 108.0k then.. and for this you’d need to see H1 downtrend finally crack
- I have been forced AFK because moving since last weekend pose crash, and it’s likely been the best thing for me with these conditions as I know I would have likely found dumb reasons to trade post wick while unecessary
So:
- Bottom, at least local ? Not until H1 downtrend finally flipped
- HTF ?… not gonna be very original but whether it’s EMA/MA wise, horizontal levels, psychological number… the fight for 100k region likely big factor here (duh)
Charts coming back early next week promised 🫡
Tldr:
- LTF focus = H4 trend @ 107/109k, same one since local top... must break for local bottom to be in into bounces/gap fills (up to 114/116k for now), otherwise eyes D1 300 MA
- HTF focus = 100k region is confluence of round/psychological number + D1 300 MA + W1 trend... obvious key level to fight for
Set alerts:
- Above H4 trend (H1 200 EMA break = good confirmation for H4 trend flip, as usual)
- At D1 300 MA
GL HF :)
A fight with H1 100 MA on btc, H1 200 EMA for eth for this Sunday afternoon. Let’s see what the [weekly close-Monday NYO] window offers 🫡
Nice. 106.5->H1 200 EMA, after a full week off, feels good to be back.
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