$BTC – Determining Cycle Tops Currently, we are seeing Bitcoin slide off again, almost reaching the previous Trump-tariff candle wick. This arouses worries, of course, with many thinking we have hit the cycle top. But how do you actually define a cycle top? Here's my simple yet effective take on it: Historically, a Bitcoin cycle top doesn't happen just after a breakdown. Big drawdowns are normal for the volatile crypto market. What really determines the top is whether price breaks below the 50-week MA. We saw this in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 cycles, all those bull runs respected the 50-week MA until the breakdown finally came. So yes, it might look scary right now. But unless we see a clean breakdown from the 50-week MA, don't think anything other than bullish thoughts.