Been thinking about the predication market, which only truly broke into the mainstream during the U.S. election cycle. A new species that's hard to classify. Are they betting? Crypto? AI? Stock trading? Or maybe the new knowledge market of the world? $HOOD handled $1B in prediction market volume in Q2, translating into roughly $40M in annualized revenue (it charges $0.01 per contract). Based on my tracking, $HOOD alone drove ~50% of $Kalshi's Q2 volume. On the opening weekend of college football, Robinhood cleared 100M contracts—just on football. $Kalshi's run-rate volume has surged to ~$15B (up from just $200M before the 2024 U.S. election). This isn’t just a one-time election pop. Offerings are expanding across sports, politics, economics, and culture. Prediction markets are becoming mainstream. I’ve always believed that true breakthroughs only happen when everything lines up just right. Right now feels like that moment. -> Cultural backdrop: Many are consciously or subconsciously tired of mainstream media. In a chaotic world—tariffs on/off, policy swings, AI leaderboard reshuffles—people crave something closer to “truth.” -> Someone always knows(?): When real money is on the line, incentives sharpen. That makes betting-market data far higher quality. -> Retail (the main street) is primed: Retail participation in U.S. equities is at 62%. Retail (the main street) matters, and retail understands prediction markets—because they look and feel like stock trading. -> Business model: Classic network effects - the big will keep getting bigger/ better. Prediction markets rely on market makers and LPs to provide liquidity. Because each prediction market needs a broader network of participants to function, they build a deeper moat through network effects. -> Regulation: Sports betting is still fractured state by state. Prediction markets, by contrast, sit under federal CFTC oversight—an instant unlock. Overnight, huge markets like California, Texas, and Georgia—where online or retail sportsbooks are banned—become accessible. This is an admistration to play offence not defense. -> Backdrop: It’s a bit like RWA—part of the broader trend where asset class lines are blurring. Fiat vs. non-fiat, physical vs. digital—the direction is clear: it won’t just be stocks that trade. Over time, everything will be exchangeable. Distribution & product: - $HOOD partnered with $Kalshi to launch sports + macro events. - $X named $Polymarket its official partner; xAI is building Kalshi's Grok-powered odds analysis. - $IBKR launched ForecastEx in 2024. - $COIN is exploring bringing prediction markets on-chain....