Ethereum influencers know that the only way for ETH to flippen BTC is if their "security budget" narrative is actually an existential threat to Bitcoin. With every halving, they wait for someone other than themselves to 51% attack and double-spend BTC in a big way, cause it to crash, and rotate capital to ETH. The problem is that their narrative doesn't factor in RBF/CPFP fee bumping and increased confirmation thresholds, which deter would-be attackers, so they're going to be waiting a long time.