"The Social Transformation of Prediction Markets" Most prediction markets are now more like tools designed for professionals. Users need to first clarify their interests, find the corresponding prediction market, evaluate the winning rate, and confirm that they have the advantage of information before placing bets. This is efficient for knowledgeable users, but not friendly to ordinary users. The entire design defaults to the user's expertise, clear goals, and rational judgment. This really aligns with analysts and veteran users. But I think this model limits the room for prediction markets because it assumes that users are only engaged to capture excess returns. I think there should be another model: user participation is for expressing opinions. Prediction markets have the dual attributes of an information tool and a social platform. On such a platform, beliefs can be translated into actual actions, where every bet is a public statement and every position is an expression of a position. What will the "Douyinization" of the prediction market look like? We can imagine such a social platform: each dynamic is associated with the corresponding prediction market, and the overall interactive experience is similar to Douyin - infinite scrolling, algorithmically recommended content, and user-independent subscriptions. In addition to regular likes and forwards, users can also directly open positions in the associated market. With this design, users no longer need to actively search for predicted targets. Based on your interests, behavioral data, and social connections, the system automatically pushes you to topics that may be of interest. Each swipe of the screen can trigger capital participation in an idea, event, or trend. Users don't need to deliberately look for areas with information advantages. The system will intelligently recommend relevant markets, such as you may swipe: "Can ETH/BTC break 0.03 this week? "Will Trump replace Powell before the end of the month?" "Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this year?" "Will [an Internet celebrity] update content this week?" This way, each of your bets becomes a public social profile. From profit-seeking to trustworthiness: prediction markets as identity expressions In this model, predictive behavior is no longer simply pursuing excess returns (alpha), but has evolved into a way of identification. When you casually bet $5 on a platform, the motivation is often not to be convinced that you have an information advantage, but to show: "I belong to the AI technology faction", "I am a die-hard of a certain team", or "I follow geopolitical developments". This kind of expression of views endorsed with real money is more convincing than the written statements of traditional social media. Just like shaping personas through posting and retweets, prediction markets allow you to build verifiable "credentials of belief." Every bet is a footnote to your worldview. Over time, these transaction records will form a unique reputation map: Who is market-forward? Who really does what they say and do? Who is indeed a domain expert? All the answers are clear. Achieve non-sensory participation...