"The biggest IPO of the US stock market this year: Figma, can it rush at the opening?" 》 Let's talk about the conclusion first: the opening of 30U is worth rushing. ✍️ What is Figma in one sentence: The largest UI/UX design software on the market today, with a market share of nearly 90%. 🧐 A few sets of key information: 1⃣ The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of revenue in the past four years is 53%, and gross profit is 91%. 2⃣Operating loss in 2024 was $877.4 million, mainly due to a 356% surge in R&D expenses to $1.54 billion 3⃣In 2022, Adobe proposed to acquire Figma for $20 billion, and received a breakup fee of $1 billion from Adobe after being suspended due to antitrust. 4⃣figma holds around $69.5 million in BTC ETFs Investment logic: 1⃣Anchor of 20 billion valuation: Valuation angle Because of the anchor point of adobe's acquisition in 2022, the current IPO valuation is 16.4 billion, corresponding to a PS of about 15, which is a little more expensive than similar companies. The core game point of the market should not look too much at PS, but on the previous 20 billion acquisition valuation. At that time, figma's financial data in all dimensions was not as good as it is now, and there were expectations of AI's impact on the design industry at that time. Today's figma not only has better financial data, but also proves that it has survived and thrived in the environment of AI shock. Therefore, it is not expensive to directly benchmark the purchase price of 20 billion yuan at that time. 2⃣ AI narrative with high R&D costs: failure is AI, success is AI. If it is simply a UI design software, figma has no imagination and will be worried about being replaced by AI, but in recent years, figma's high R&D investment and AI+ design development strategy have directly raised its narrative to a higher level. As a result, it is not easy to price, and it is not good to price to take off. 3⃣Circle's lessons from the past: Logically, circle and figma are completely two tracks, why is circle mentioned? Mainly, I think figma has a chance to replicate Circle's script. There are several main reasons: The current sentiment of the US stock market is hot, figma has an AI narrative, figma is the largest IPO in the US stock market this year, and the success of Circle may make everyone brainless FOMO figma. 4⃣ BTC holdings: figma holds BTC without going public, unlike those shell companies that need to rely on currency stock narratives to support valuations, figma is a BTC that chooses to buy without market value management pressure, it can only be said that the management's vision is very unique. As a BTC holder, there is nothing wrong with supporting another BTC holder's company. Overall, the current IPO valuation of $146-16.4 billion (pricing range of $25-28 per share) I think it's not expensive and very profitable, and if I can buy it below $30 on Thursday night, I'll burn incense. #figma #美股 #CRCL