By the midterm election cycle I think we will start seeing PACs deploy money into prediction markets to shape the narrative.

2nd order effects of this will be fascinating. Why take risk to deposit at a traditional bank vs using a narrow bank that only holds tbills? Narrow banks will have lower expenses & will pass more interest to depositors. Narrow bank = less risk and higher interest for depositors

I'm bearish on AI relative to the rest of the market over a 2 year time horizon. At this point AI is priced for absolute perfection. Expectations are sky high. The only thing which would exceed expectations is ASI in the next few years. In the world where we exceed the market's expectations and get ASI, money doesn't matter anymore and it doesn't matter that I was wrong to be bearish. We either live in post scarcity society or we are all dead. In the world where ASI doesn't happen in the next few years, there is asymmetric downside risk to AI investments. If AI doesn't meet or exceed the market's sky high expectations, bears will be rewarded. I am not qualified to judge whether we will get ASI, there are credible expert arguments on both sides. So it's effectively a coinflip to me. Heads and bears win. Tails and everyone wins or loses together, regardless of they were bulls or bears.