1/ 🇺🇸 9月ISM制造业PMI数据已发布。 表面上看,略有上升。 但背后的故事更为复杂,需求在减弱,职位在缩减,价格依然高企(这也在Truflation美国通胀数据中得到了体现)。 以下是你需要知道的所有信息。 🧵
2/ PMI为49.1(预期49.0,前值48.7)。 制造业仍在收缩(<50),但速度放缓。 两个组成部分扩张(生产51.0,供应商交付52.6),而需求和就业仍然疲软。
3/ 需求减弱: ✦ 新订单 48.9 (比8月下降2.5点) → 再次回到收缩状态 ✦ 新出口订单 43.0 (下降4.6点) → 全球需求疲软 ✦ 积压订单 46.2 (+1.5点) → 小幅改善,但仍在收缩中 ✦ 客户库存 43.7 → “过低”,通常对订单有利
5/ 价格仍然高企: ✦ 61.9 (–1.8 点) → 仍在上升,尽管速度较慢。 ✦ 连续第12个月上涨。 正如我们最近的通胀更新中提到的,CPI的近期上升表明这些输入成本可能正在传导到家庭中。
Truflation
Truflation2025年9月30日
1/ 🇺🇸 US Inflation Update: 2.5 Years in a Downward Channel If we zoom out to a 5-year window, our real-time inflation data shows that for nearly two and a half years (following the immediate post-COVID price surge), inflation has remained in a steady, slightly downward-trending channel. Different views exist on what comes next: some argue we’re heading toward a soft landing, others warn of a possible recessionary drop, while many believe tariffs could continue fueling inflationary pressures. On shorter timeframes, we observed an inflection point around April 2025, partly coinciding with tariffs. Still, the rise has kept inflation within the broader channel. If shorter-term movements break the long-term trend, you’ll be the first to know. We publish these metrics daily, and our inflation signals run ahead of official government data. Moments like these demand real-time data. That’s what TRUF delivers.
6/ 输入与供应链: ✦ 供应商交付 52.6 (+1.3 点) → 交付速度变慢 ✦ 库存 47.7 (–1.7 点) → 收缩加快 ✦ 进口 44.7 (–1.3 点) → 以更快的速度收缩 总体而言,输入进一步收缩,成本仍在施压。
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