A lot of people are blaming AI for grads’ poor outcomes, but I find the evidence for this claim is surprisingly thin. Excited to release a new analysis w/ @employamerica on the labor market performance of recent college grads. 🧵

NEW: There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment. I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged: Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.

Like many fans, I have found football radars to be really helpful, as they are visually very intuitive and easy to understand. Today we launch our own version to highlight the financial strengths and weaknesses of football clubs, comparing Premier League clubs with their peers.

New post: MAGA energy policy means raising electricity prices to own the libs Sacrificing material prosperity for post-material politics used to be what I thought the far right called "woke." But this is exactly what the Big Beautiful Bill does on energy policy. It singles out solar, storage, wind, etc for onerous punishment because these energy sources carry the whiff of Biden and climate change hippies, even as experts scream that BBB's policies will raise electricity prices at a time when electricity demand is surging. If anything screams "sacrificing material wellbeing for post-material weirdness" it's forcing Americans to pay more for electricity because you're so blinded by hatred of any technology that codes as progressive. (And solar isn't even progressive! The Texas energy grid is adding renewables like crazy, because it's economical!) I've seen @EricLevitz on this beat, as well, and I think it's remarkable. Some folks think about the GOP being too obsessed with economic efficiency and the Democratic Party as being too obsessed with identity. But on energy, GOP lawmakers have assigned solar the identity of "lib" and so they're willing to make our grids less efficient as long as they can own the libs.

Since Trump was elected, US support for international cooperation of all kinds has climbed sharply, from free trade to overseas assistance. Perhaps Trump’s real MAGA legacy will be Making Americans Globalists Again

The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.

Negative partisanship is a helluva drug: Up until a few months ago, liberal and conservative Americans held pretty much the same views on free trade. Now, not so much…

NEW 🧵 The number of people travelling from Europe to the US in recent weeks has plummeted by as much as 35%, as travellers have cancelled plans in response to Trump’s policies and rhetoric, and horror stories from the border.

New consumer sentiment data just out for April: Americans’ expectations for how the economy will fare over the next year are now at their worst in 45 years. Consumer confidence is down 40% since Trump’s inauguration, including a 20% drop among Republicans.

Economic uncertainty update: The thing about veering wildly between policy positions, favouring a new maverick advisor each week, and using contradictory justifications at every turn, is that even if one particular pivot is in the direction of sanity, chaos is the constant.