One reason oil's reaction to the weekend's events was muted is how aggressively upside skew was bid into the weekend, per Bloomberg

The highest EV trade I can think of right now is harvesting the risk premium in the markets from the conflict in Iran. Of course this could backfire if the conflict escalates or if Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz. With the oil markets well supplied and positioning pretty clean in risk assets, it’s a risk I’m willing to bet against.

Wait what? No mention in this article about the fact that Bessent becoming Fed chair would destroy Fed independence??

Good color on the timing and impact of SLR reform

🔴 Is China Ready for an All-Out Trade War? / with @fidenzamacro #GlobalMacro 🔥 Enjoy it only on Real Vision (free signup required)

The end of American global hegemony - why this could be the global macro trade of our lifetimes.

This interview with Niall Ferguson about Trump and tariffs resonated

Been trying to trade while on vacation in PST time and every day I wake up I feel like I’ve been teleported into a war zone.

Great interview, it helped inform some of my trading decisions today

Took profit on all my trade war positions. The risk from here is that Trump and China hint at coming to the negotiation table. Trump will realize he can’t win as the US has no fiscal space and China owns the Treasury market.