Little by little…until 2M breached, likely by next week given the move in initial claims and continuing lagging on the reporting front by one week.

The STR jocks getting socked: In addition to the slow North American growth at @Airbnb “we do expect y/o/y comparisons to get tougher toward the end of the quarter, and that this dynamic will continue into Q4, putting pressure on growth rates later in the year.” ht @pboockvar

This part of Mary Daly's speech is notable...it flags a shift from: "high uncertainty means we wait and see" to... "clarity may never come and we can't wait to act". Very much echoing the same point that Chris Waller made in his dissent.

Triple A, you say? Investors who piled into the safest portion of a $277M CMBS tied to a Denver office tower are facing the prospect of steep losses after the building was reappraised at a fraction of its former value and interest payouts were cut. cc @danjmcnamara @business

There IS a way to paint this as benign on a relative basis… “Majority (55%) say they expect home prices in their local market to either stay flat/decline over the next 12 months. That’s up 20 percentage points from Q1 2025, when just 35% expected prices to remain flat or fall.”

" The strength of shelter disinflation right now is absolutely unmistakable and it is overwhelming any kind of tariff impulse that we’re seeing on the goods side. Chair Powell has the absolute green light to go in September." #powell #federalreserve #dimartinobooth #economy

Is it me, or is “fully funded” something of a historical curse? @apolloglobal

Weekend irony “buried” somewhere in article headline. I’ll spare headline writer/outlet embarrassment by not sourcing. But this is a case of political bias, historical ignorance or a blatant attempt to misinform: “Trump Fires Labor Statistics Head, Prompting Concerns About Data”

Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research talks with Global Money Talk on Jobs after the Fed announcement on interest rates this week — 

"…they said the economy moderated so they toned the language down and again every word of these statements is parsed over very carefully so that language was changed for somebody." #fedstatement #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth