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Anna Wong
Chief US Economist, Bloomberg LP @economics. Former Fed/CEA/US Treasury, @uchi_economics @UCberkeley. All opinions are my own.
Brad’s spidery sense of this is second to none, and this is coming from my unbiased opinion of having worked for him. (And he is usually right)
23.7. klo 01.57
A deep dive -- a really deep dive some might say -- into the IMF's new External Sector Report.
It is a step in the right direction, but the IMF is still understating the scale of global trade imbalances and the scale of China's surplus.
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On how much Chinese goods vacated by US demand will hit EU, my colleagues @RushEconomics and Maeva Cousin estimated that $75 billion will be looking to EU.
Turns out EU and US buy similar stuff from China.
And this is not yet looking at the production similarity between EU And China.
@TheTerminal :
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China faces domestic demand problems from multiple directions. At the same time its costs advantage over the rest of the world is surging:
1. Popping of a real estate overhang that will exert downward pressure on demand and prices for many years to come. Negative wealth effects continue to drag on the relative well off.
2. Adoption of AI is fast. But so is the at least short term destabilizing impact on jobs (particularly entry level jobs), and jobs security.
3. There are well documented gaps in social security net for the massive aging rural population.
4. Deflation means that domestic competition, which was already cutthroat, becomes more cutthroat. Firms are drawn outwards to exports market for fatter margins, aided by domestic deflation and increasing direct to consumer tactics that cut out many foreign intermediaries that traditionally benefited from trade in previous wave of globalization.
My view is that the world will have trouble absorbing the goods vacated by US demand.
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Anna Wong kirjasi uudelleen
China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China, pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else...
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