Why will the BTC bull market end in 2025? Let's start with the conclusion: The inversion of the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields will end in early September 2024, concluding about two years of inversion. During this period, short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, which is a historical precursor to economic recession. As a risk asset, BTC finds it hard to stand alone. From a macro perspective, BTC resembles a cup and handle structure, with the top position around 124,672. I believe the catalyst for this small bull run is likely the new regulations from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which will officially adopt fair value accounting for Bitcoin starting from the fiscal year after December 15, 2024—allowing U.S. companies to start purchasing Bitcoin to include on their balance sheets. Rationally speaking, while the rainbow chart, Mayer multiple, and others expect BTC to reach 250,000 to 300,000, I personally feel that a black swan event is needed to trigger a violent rate cut by the Federal Reserve similar to 2020, which could potentially push BTC to the 250,000 to 300,000 price range. Therefore, my personal strategy is to gradually withdraw around 125,000 or convert all positions to BTC. Below is the historical performance of the U.S. stock market after inversions ended, which has never failed. The inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve between the 10-year and 2-year (i.e., short-term rates being higher than long-term rates) is typically seen as a precursor to economic recession. In the past, this phenomenon has indeed led to economic recessions and stock market declines after a period of time, although the intervals are not entirely consistent. Here are some important historical cases and the time intervals between inversions and economic recessions and stock market crashes: 1. 1978: The 10-2 year inversion occurred, and about 9 months later (mid-1979), the U.S. entered a recession, and the stock market also declined. 2. 1980: After another inversion, about 1 year later (mid-1981), the U.S. fell into a recession. The stock market was quite volatile during this period and performed poorly overall. 3. 1989: About 1 year after the inversion (mid-1990), the U.S. entered a recession, and the stock market experienced a significant decline. 4. 2000: About 8 months after the inversion (early 2001), the U.S. economy entered a recession, and the stock market began to plummet, forming a bear market after the dot-com bubble burst. 5. 2006: About 2 years after the inversion (2008), the global financial crisis occurred, leading the U.S. into a severe recession and a stock market crash. 6. 2019: The 10-2 year inversion appeared in 2019, and about 1 year later (2020), the global economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, causing the stock market to plummet sharply. In summary, inversions typically lead to economic recessions and stock market crashes within 6 months to 2 years. However, inversion is just a precursor; the actual timing of the recession and market decline is also influenced by other factors, such as policy interventions, external economic conditions, and unexpected events.