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Colin Talks Crypto 🪙
Bitcoin Social Media Sentiment
My god. I thought maybe social sentiment had increased since last month, but it's even lower than before!
This is as low, or lower, sentiment than BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS! Except BTC is in ATH range. 🤯 Let that sink in.
It means the market hasn't topped yet. There has been no euphoria to form a proper sentiment top.
Chart from @intocryptoverse. Text is my own.
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Nobody said the path up was in a straight line.
19.8. klo 23.48
Remember: 20%-30% corrections are normal in a bull run.
They may not be easy to stomach, nor fun, but they are normal.
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"Outstanding" - Peter Brandt
This means a lot coming from Peter! 🙏 I consider him one of the top analysts.
19.8. klo 19.11
Outstanding
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Interesting trend line.
It touches all 3 cycles. If the Bitcoin top is later this year and it respects this line, what price might that suggest? To me it looks like it would only be around $125k-$130k, so it's interesting to think it could be possible (and what might happen?) if the price were to break above this line.
For the record, I'm not suggesting the top is in right now. Furthermore, I think the actual BTC top will be higher than $125k-$130k, so I'm looking at this as a thought exercise at how this might play out. It seems fairly possible that this upper line could be blasted through and used as support, but it's bold to say that before it happens.
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Interesting trend line.
It touches all 3 cycles. If the Bitcoin top is later this year and it respects this line, what price might that suggest? To me it looks like it would only be around $125k-$130k, so it's interesting to think it could be possible (and what might happen?) if the price were to break above this line.
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Just a reminder that when the Fed cuts rates it often marks the *approximate* top for markets before a crash.
I think that top is lining up for a BTC and stock top in a few months.
People will be most euphoric and most disagreeable to this idea when the time comes.
Another datum: when the Fed Funds rate returns to near-zero (they're done dropping it), that often marks the bottom of the crash. This is all ahead of us, imo.
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BTC Bottom in Today & Next High Confidence BTC Move Up Around Aug 23rd - Triple Confluence
This is another, fun, short-term Bitcoin price prediction using the triple confluence of Global M2, Gold and Inverse DXY, each shifted forward by 82 days.
Doing so last time correctly called a move up in advance (see the post below).
This seems to indicate a high probability of two things:
1. The bottom could be in today (Aug 18th)
2. The next, predictably, high-confidence move up will be around Aug 23rd.
The second point is the highest confidence as all 3 metrics show it. The first point is lesser confidence as it looks like there could be a few sideways days ahead from the metrics, but roughly speaking, the bottom seems to be near.
This "triple confluence" is an experimental thing I'm doing to see how it works out at predicting somewhat short term moves. Read the quoted post below for more context and data.
5.8. klo 21.55
Next $BTC move-up prediction: August 9-13th
This is an EXPERIMENT to see if 3 charts (Global M2, Inverse DXY, and Gold) act as confluence, and if they can predict *when* BTC's next short term price move up will begin for BTC.
Pictured:
• Global M2 [yellow line]
• Inverse DXY [blue line]
• Gold [pink line]
Each was offset by 82 days to match the most recent price moves. This offset was chosen purely visually and for recency. It was overfitted on purpose. For a longer term view (which is not what we're looking at here) an offset of about 90 has a stronger average correlation.
I want to be very clear: this is just an attempt at guessing the next short term move based on short term confluence. This is NOT intended to give some big macro picture. This is an EXPERIMENT to see if these three charts can offer us increased odds of determining the next short term price move correctly. Let's watch and see. 🍿
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