Fartcoin basis trade on HL has been close to 100 pct apy all day

Fartcoin basis trade on HL has been close to 100 pct apy all day

Macro thoughts. Been doing this a while. Wrong a lot. Most won't care but I just want this down somewhere - as it stands we (USA) are in trouble. Likely recession at best and stagflation at worst (I think 52% odds on Polymarket are far too low) - POTUS was caught off guard because rates went up; he thought thy would decline and cushion the blow of tariffs - which is why he's freaking out on Jerome Powell to lower rates and also why he instituted the 90d tariff relaxation period when the bond market sold off (yields higher) - lowering rates now would be monumentally idiotic given inflation expectations at astronomically high levels (thanks tariffs) - Powell doing exactly what he should be doing. Market trusts him - So what now for Trump? I think his meeting with Wal-Mart/Target/Home Depot yesterday was a major turning point in his thinking (witness his softening comments last night on both Powell and China) - I expect deals as soon as possible with Japan/India and maybe UK. Bessent said tonight they're less worried about currency intervention in Japan, which is a significant softening IMO - He needs to save face and there are few paths out of this that allow him to do so - Odds of black swan events have risen substantially, though still very low - He will start losing party support any day now and it's going to get ugly inside those halls - This is his Waterloo. It's one of the biggest own goals I have ever witnessed Best guess? Risk assets are going lower. Possibly a lot lower. I expect gold/BTC to continue to do well. Hopefully some of the other majors too. Stay safe. Keep building; we'll come back from this. Oh and art is a great hedge during times like these 😉