Squawk Box round 2 on @CNBC this morning talking about Polymarket's return to the US & more 🇺🇸 We're coming.

Polymarket has acquired QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. This paves the way for us to welcome American traders again. I've waited a long time to say this: Polymarket is coming home 🇺🇸🦅

The ending of these probes into Polymarket is phenomenal news. Shayne is a real one. He's a genuinely good dude. I'm feeling like I should write a little about this guy, because I am sure his life was hell last November. A few years ago, probably late 2020, in the first convo I ever had with Shayne, I came away from it that he was (yet another) big idea guy who had the silly notion to create a prediction market from scratch. I honestly thought it would fail and didn't take him or Polymarket seriously. Markets like this have been tried and mostly failed over and over and over again. Even on crypto, sites like Augur, Catnip, BetMoose (yes, that is a real name), along with dozens of companies you've never heard of. Some sort of succeeded, for short periods of time. But none of them ever REALLY lived up to the potential or vision. So my initial report back on the Polymarket team to friends was: idealistic kids, in over their heads, don't bother joining. But what I didn't realize after that first conversation was how singularly obsessed Shayne was with bringing all of this to life. It wasn't just some random business idea from an incubator: he was a true believer in the whole enterprise. He had a vision for what he wanted this company to be, and he was implementing it. Brick by brick. From when I made my first deposit to Polymarket in 2021 of $100 (still convinced it would probably fail) all the way through me doing hundreds of millions of dollars in volume in 2024, Shayne was messaging me on a constant basis: how do I make this site better. Over and over and over again. Always trying to improve. Always trying to grow. Never content. Focused on the big picture. If you compare Polymarket in 2021 to how it exists in 2025, it is unrecognizably more professional, more sophisticated, and more complex. And the crazy part is: it is all on the blockchain. They had to invent half of the features and capabilities on the site, because it didn't otherwise exist (and shout out to the team of engineers who made it happen). Shayne also told me in the early days, circa 2021 -- me, just a decently successful PredictIt bettor who fell into doing this as a mildly successful career -- prediction markets are going to be big, you're going to make a lot of money, and people are going to know who you are (relatively speaking lol). And my reaction was to laugh. What a dumb thing to say. This was such a niche space. It was an oddity. There was enough money for a decent living and that was it. In real world terms, the absolute pinnacle of the career would be a lightly used Audi and a mortgage payment. But not only was he correct in his promises, but he is the one who built it. Telling people I do prediction markets has gone from "...wtf is that?" to "...oh, like Polymarket?" in the span of a few years. Shayne did that. So when this genuinely good dude had his door busted down in November, I was shocked. There's so much casual criming going on in the world that I couldn't believe that anyone had the time or resources for THAT. Ridiculous. I'm not normally one for conspiracies, but the whole thing did - and still does - seem at least a little politically motivated to me. So full credit to this guy for weathering that storm, for getting through it. I am sure it wasn't remotely easy. And if you're wondering whether it has deterred him or changed him at all? Answer: I've received 30+ messages in the past week from Shayne with ideas on how to further improve the site.

so what do i do with this now

8 months ago, on election night, we were on top of the world after Polymarket called the election. 8 days later, the FBI broke down my door at 6am and took all my computers and phones, looking for anything that could imply foul play. While traumatic, it etched the story of Polymarket's accuracy, and the ensuing resistance, into the history of American politics. And today, I'm happy to announce that this chapter of the story is over. After cooperating and engaging, we've been cleared of any wrongdoing. Justice prevailed. God Bless America 🇺🇸

One day, there may be more AIs than humans creating, pricing, trading millions of polymarkets on everything (h/t @VitalikButerin). A unique benefit of onchain prediction markets is the ability for AI agents to plug in. Multiple groups quietly print on Polymarket with agentic workflows. As AI ushers in Superintelligence, Polymarket ushers in Collective Intelligence. It's happening.

🚨NEW: Grok 4 has @Polymarket integration built in so it can better predict the future when asked questions.

Polymarket made @TIME’s 100 Most Influential Companies Turns out the people want the truth

Polymarket is on a generational run.

I'm calling it. A third crypto killer app has been found: 1. BTC 2. USD Stablecoins 3. Polymarket All three have successfully punched through CT into the mainstream, with staying power.