Hormuz famine timelines A month-long closure of Hormuz, which is already the base case, will lead to inflation. The hydrocarbon value chain will be most impacted. A 3 month closure and you're looking at a high probability of regional famines in the most vulnerable areas. When we start looking at 6 months or more we get into the really dark scenarios. 50% of all food globally is produced with synthetic inputs. These supply chains will be incredibly stressed, and export bans and windfall taxes likely cap output. At a 6-month closure you're looking at near certain regional famine conditions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Inflation in Europe and the United States will be the highest in living memory. If Hormuz is closed for multiple years, The probability of global famine and the death of billions starts to become highly probable. As a base case, I expect that the longer that the closure goes on, the more probable World War II style rationing becomes. We could be there within months even in rich countries. Reducing consumption and limiting waste is going to become very important. Creating non-industrial fertilizer systems will eventually become essential. This essentially means free grazing and animal husbandry and even utilizing human waste. Good farmland that can produce food with no synthetic inputs could become extremely valuable.