The theme of the past week is that the market has begun to price the war as something more than a ST "excursion." You see it in CPI swaps, oil's term structure, and rates markets. CPI swaps now seeing inflation rising over the next 13-24 months compared to before the war.

In oil, longer-dated contracts have risen relative to near-dated contracts. This has modestly alleviated backwardation without the front month declining...very rare price action in the curve.