The oil shock has revived inflation fears and markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed. While short-term expectations rise, the real story is long-term expectations. 5y5y forward inflation expectations, a measure of sustained inflation control credibility, have remained well-anchored between 2.3-2.8% despite COVID-era stimulus, the 2022 war-driven energy crisis, tariffs and now another war-driven energy crisis. The takeaway: Markets still believe inflation will be contained. But history warns: once lost (see: 1970s as an example), credibility is painfully hard to rebuild. Via Deutsche Bank