Threadguy reacts to Polymarket giving the Iran war only a 25% chance of ending this month “The chance this war ends in three days is basically zero. By April 30th it’s only a 47% chance. If we get to April 30th and the Strait is still closed, where is the oil price going to be?” “The government is saying the Strait will be open in 2-4 weeks. Polymarket is saying absolutely not”