Hormuz is China’s Achilles heel long before it is ours. Xi faces a choice on a short horizon. Over the coming three to four months, he is under considerable pressure to compel Iran, and to press Russia into alignment, to help end the Gulf crisis or be forced to bend the knee to Washington as China’s energy needs become dependent on the Western hemisphere. Shifting mass procurement to Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and the US is the strategic subjugation Beijing has spent decades circumventing. China’s economic lifeline will be pushed into extended Pacific supply lines overseen by the US Navy. Fortune favors the bold and time is not on Iran’s side. The 70s script of the Shale Paradox has reversed.