The case for $200 a barrel oil by my analysis. Firstly you must understand that on the demand side the world consumes roughly 100 million barrels of oil per day with 20 million of those barrels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. That straight is closed. And the scary party about this is Iran didn’t need a navy to shut it down. All it took was a handful of cheap drones fired near the waterway, and within 48 hours insurers pulled war-risk coverage, and 150 tankers dropped anchor rather than risk the crossing. This is a VERY high ROI strategy for Iran, very little capital is needed to maintain a closure now because the market priced the risk accordingly making it economically untenable. Now with that being said and what makes this structurally different from prior scares to me is that there is no spare capacity sitting on the sidelines and this is KEY. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq can’t backfill supply because they can’t export. 89% of Saudi exports, 97% of Iraq’s, and 100% of Kuwait’s and Qatar’s flow through that strait. What this means is the fucking oil Storage tanks across the Gulf are filling up rapidly ! Which means producers aren’t just losing export revenue they’re being forced to curtail production entirely because there is literally nowhere to store the oil. The Iranian attacks on the physical infrastructure only compounds this! Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery which processes 550,000 bpd and is one of the world’s largest crude export terminals was shut down after drone strikes ignited a fire at the complex. Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, which produces roughly 20% of the world’s LNG, halted all production following Iranian attacks. Refineries in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE were also hit. This is physical destruction of processing and export infrastructure across six countries simultaneously. Bringing that capacity back online isn’t a switch you flip. Industrial-scale refinery damage typically takes three to six months to repair under normal peacetime conditions, with full supply chains available and no ongoing threat of additional strikes. In an active war that timeline extends materially. Qatar’s largest LNG customers in Japan, South Korea, and Europe are likely looking at weeks to months without contracted supply and those are long-term offtake agreements with no easy substitution available at spot. Then add Yemen on top of this. The Houthis have already reactivated attacks on Red Sea shipping, forcing rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. With the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden effectively closed to Western commercial traffic, which means the only alternative routing for Gulf crude is now also unavailable. Meaning both of the world’s critical energy chokepoints simultaneously compromised for the first time in modern history.